Big Drugs. Bigger Questions.
Big drugs, bigger market
Pipeline's most valuable bets
The patent cliff behind the patent cliff
Deals back on
Bigger questions
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The World Preview is written by Melanie Senior
Drug sales growth is strong, M&A is back, venture is bigger. But US pricing and regulatory risk, over-crowding and a shifting global eco-system temper the mood.
Drugs for obesity and inflammatory conditions will drive global pharmaceutical sales above $2 trillion in 2032. Five drugs will each sell over $20 billion that year; the top twenty together will account for almost a fifth of all sales.
The big drugs era continues. Pharma’s hunt for de-risked, multi-indication assets is turbo-charging M&A. China is now the main source of licensing assets for Western pharma, and for a growing class of built-to-buy biotechs.
In the US, pricing pressure, policy tantrums, trade disruption and regulatory flip-flops are (almost) part of the landscape. Uncertainty has become a new normal.
Uncertainty has become a new normal.
Yet as patents expire, global competition intensifies and margins are squeezed, pharma faces urgent questions. How to grow outside of crowded hotspots? How much to risk on novel science, versus greater convenience or cheaper manufacturing? Will tomorrow’s most important payers value better-in-class more than new-class drugs, and how many of those payers will be in China?
