Big Drugs. Bigger Questions.
Big drugs, bigger market
Pipeline's most valuable bets
The patent cliff behind the patent cliff
Deals back on
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The World Preview is written by Melanie Senior
For investment banks, the next phase of pharma growth is defined by a sharper spread between winners, exposed incumbents and assets that can still command strategic premiums.
Worldwide prescription drug sales are forecast to pass $2 trillion by 2032, with growth above 7% CAGR between 2025-2032.
The big drugs era continues. Pharma’s hunt for de-risked, multi-indication assets is turbo-charging M&A. China is now the main source of licensing assets for Western pharma, and for a growing class of built-to-buy biotechs.
That tension is already shaping deal flow. Patent pressure, pricing uncertainty and the search for de-risked, multi-indication assets are pushing pharma back toward M&A, with 2026 deal value potentially approaching $200 billion.
Uncertainty has become a new normal.
China is also changing the sourcing map, with Chinese assets expected to represent more than two-thirds of licensing deal value this year.
For investors advising across M&A, capital markets and strategic alternatives, the question is not whether pharma grows. It is where value concentrates next.
