Big Drugs. Bigger Questions.
Big drugs, bigger market
Pipeline's most valuable bets
The patent cliff behind the patent cliff
Deals back on
Bigger questions
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The World Preview is written by Melanie Senior
For hedge funds, World Preview 2026 is a map of where consensus may move, where growth is concentrating and where risk is being underpriced.
Worldwide prescription drug sales are forecast to pass $2 trillion by 2032, but the upside is increasingly concentrated in a small group of mega-products.
Tirzepatide alone is expected to exceed $70 billion, while immunomodulators are forecast to grow at over 9% CAGR through 2032.
The other side of the trade is exposure.
Uncertainty has become a new normal.
More than $500 billion in sales could be at risk from generic competition between 2026 and 2032, with Merck and AbbVie facing meaningful patent pressure.
Add pricing reform, FDA uncertainty and China’s growing role in global licensing, and the sector is full of revision risk.
For investors, the question is where forecasts, catalysts and competitive dynamics are likely to break from consensus.
