Foreword
Drug sales forecasts to 2030 reflect solid underlying demand. But much is changing across the biopharmaceutical landscape.
The Evaluate World Preview is written by Melanie Senior
See-sawing global tariffs, a US regulator in flux and a possible end to US drug price premia are not, apparently, enough to stymie pharmaceutical industry growth. Worldwide prescription drug sales will reach over $1.75 trillion in 2030, representing a compound annual growth of over 7%. Obesity drugs are once again leading the charge, posting average annual growth of 20% between 2024 and 2030. By then, GLP-1 agonists and related combinations will comprise close to 9% of all prescription drug sales. They are in a class of their own.
Immuno-inflammatory drugs also loom large in 2030’s top ten best-sellers – AbbVie’s Skyrizi (risankizumab) and Sanofi/Regeneron's Dupixent (dupilumab) are both on track to sell over $25bn. Oncology, too, remains in the mix: Johnson & Johnson/Genmab’s blood cancer drug Darzalex (daratumumab) almost matching Merck’s falling giant Keytruda (pembrolizumab) which will fall to seventh place.
Multi-indication blockbusters like Dupixent – which recently added to its labels chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and urticaria, a type of skin rash – are the best salve for Big Pharma’s ongoing patent expiry woes. Keytruda’s 2028 expiry puts Merck at the top of the most exposed companies to patent-related sales losses over the rest of the decade – and is the only top ten drug with negative growth. But Keytruda’s sub-cutaneous formulation – expected to be approved in the US in September – takes fifth place in the most valuable pipeline drugs by net present value. It’s a shining case study in life-cycle management. The forthcoming GLP-1 combos and formulations may prove similarly effective.
So far, so familiar. But 2025’s World Preview is not all business-as-usual. Policy uncertainty, FDA upheaval and cuts to National Institutes of Health (NIH) funding are layering further uncertainty onto an already risky sector. As pharma holds off large dealmaking, it weakens the M&A life-raft that proved so vital to a suffering biotech industry in 2023 and 2024. Biotech, bruised from a five-year downcycle, is not out of the woods.
2025’s World Preview is not all business-as-usual.
Dealmaking will return. Yet more enduring forces-for-change are also at work across biopharma.
China is churning out best- and even first-in-class molecules more quickly and cheaply than its Western counterparts. China-sourced assets will make up almost 40% of all licensing deals this year, up from less than 3% five years ago. The implications for Western biopharma are profound. R&D efficiency must improve, or even the US risks playing second fiddle to a nation that appears to be delivering what Western payers and consumers want: cheaper, faster innovation.
AI may provide some of the answer to the China question. But its role and impact have yet to play out – across biopharma like everywhere else.
Certainties amid the turmoil are continued demand for better medicines, and pricing pressure. Whether or not President Trump’s ‘most favored nation’ pricing plan finds its way onto the stage, the sector is likely to remain in policymakers’ crosshairs. All the more so as biologics, which carry higher prices than small molecule medicines, will account for almost two-thirds of overall prescription drugs’ value by 2030.
Forecasting is harder, yet more important, during such volatile times. This year’s World Preview quantifies industry trends and flags up future challenges. How many deal and investment dollars will China divert from the US and Europe? Could biologics’ steady march prompter harsher cost-controls? Will a shook-up US regulator reduce or increase the chance of getting innovative assets over the line?
Listen to our expert panel as they discuss the report key findings. Click the link below to hear more about:
The top drugs, companies and therapy areas to 2030
The rise and rise of GLP-1 drugs
The fast-changing role of Chinese biotechs
How loss of exclusivity will impact blockbuster therapies
