A Class of Their Own
Previously unseen sales peaks beckon for GLP-1s.
Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1)- based drugs are now a category apart, projected to reach hitherto unseen sales peaks. Tirzepatide, sold by Eli Lilly & Co. as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity, will be worth close to $62 billion by 2030. That’s three times larger than the peak reached by AbbVie’s auto-immune disease blockbuster Humira, and double 2024 sales of Merck & Co Inc.’s cancer behemoth Keytruda, now on the brink of generic competition.
Top12 included due to semaglutide and tirzepatide-based brands appearing twice each.
GLP-1 based drugs will make up five of the top ten best-sellers in 2030, and account for four of the top ten most promising pipeline candidates.
Lilly’s supremacy in this battle is already apparent. Mounjaro and Zepbound will be the best- and third-best sellers, respectively, by the end of the decade, and Lilly’s oral GLP-1 orforglipron and triple-G agonist retatrutide are in the top three most valuable pipeline contenders. First-mover Novo Nordisk lost ground due to its sluggish response to manufacturing shortages of Wegovy (semaglutide), which led to a flood of compounded (pharmacy-mixed) drug. Then a head-to-head study late last year showed that tirzepatide leads to greater weight loss than semaglutide. In a further blow to Novo, semaglutide is one of the 15 drugs selected under the Inflation Reduction Act for negotiated Medicare prices from 2027.
Type your content here…
Source: Evaluate Pharma© (May 2025)
Product
Company
Therapy Area
WW Product Revenues ($bn) 20230
Today's NPV ($bn)
Cagrisema
Novo Nordisk
Gastro-Intestinal & Endocrine
15.2
80.0
Orforglipron
Eli Lilly
12.7
54.2
Retatrutide
5.6
31.1
MariTide
Amgen
3.7
25.0
MK-3475A (Subcutaneous KEYTRUDA)
Merck & Co
Oncology
7.6
22.1
Ivonescimab
Summit Therapeutics
4.4
17.5
Relacorilant
Corcept Therapeutics
2.7
12.3
Milvexian
Bristol Myers Squibb
Blood
1.8
10.7
Daraxonrasib
Revolution Medicines
2.0
10.6
Brensocatib
Insmed
Respiratory
3.1
9.7
Top 10
72
273.6
Total
314
1,091.7
Granted, Novo’s pipeline asset Cagrisema - which combines semaglutide with amylin agonist cagrilintide – tops the most-valuable R&D candidate chart, with projected peak sales of over $80 billion. But the candidate – schedule to be filed for approval in the first quarter of 2026 - fell short of expectations in a recent Phase 3 study, prompting Novo to launch a new, longer-duration trial with different doses. If it doesn’t improve, CagriSema will only match Zepbound in efficacy, yet is more complex to manufacture.
By mid-May 2025, Novo’s shares had fallen back close to their levels in late 2022, before Wegovy became widely available in the US. Lilly’s share price, in contrast, has held up at over double its 2022 value, making the US giant more than three times as large, by market capitalisation, as its Danish competitor.
No surprise, then, to see Lilly dominating the top ten biggest companies in 2030, with projected revenues close to double those of once-giant Pfizer or Novartis, and growth overshadowing all its competitors. (See Box)
Much remains to play out in the GLP-1 market. Lilly’s orforglipron in April 2025 was the first oral GLP-1 to issue Phase 3 results, showing an average 7.9% weight loss at the highest dose. That’s way off the 20.2% seen with injectable tirzepatide, but patients hadn’t been on the oral drug for as long as those in the tirzepatide trial. Whatever the true comparison, the convenience premium may help drive the candidate toward its $62 billion projected peak sales.
Covid-19 vaccine-maker Pfizer fell furthest and hardest post-pandemic, while Novartis’ lack of a stand-out blockbuster has kept it in the bottom half of the top ten. Merck slips five ranks due to Keytruda’s LOE; J&J and AbbVie are displaced by the GLP-1 duo.
The most impressive non-GLP-1 riser? Sanofi, up three places to sixth by the end of the decade. Thank Dupixent, its Regeneron-partnered blockbuster anti-inflammatory, projected to grow at a compounded 10% to top $25 billion.
