Foreword
Drug sales forecasts to 2030 reflect robust demand fundamentals—but the investment landscape is shifting fast.
The Evaluate World Preview is written by Melanie Senior
Despite macroeconomic headwinds, regulatory flux, and intensifying pricing scrutiny, the global pharmaceutical market continues to deliver resilient growth. Prescription drug sales are projected to surpass $1.75 trillion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of over 7%. For investors, this signals a sector with enduring fundamentals—but also one undergoing structural transformation.
Obesity therapeutics, particularly GLP-1 agonists, are reshaping the revenue mix. With 20% annual growth forecast through 2030, these assets are on track to account for nearly 9% of global Rx sales. Their trajectory is reminiscent of past blockbuster cycles, but with broader implications for payer dynamics and long-term market share.
Immunology and oncology remain core pillars. AbbVie’s Skyrizi and Sanofi’s Dupixent are each expected to generate over $25 billion annually by 2030. Meanwhile, by 2030, Darzalex will be close to catching up with Keytruda, which faces a 2028 patent cliff - a key risk factor for Merck and a reminder of the sector’s exposure to lifecycle transitions. Yet Keytruda’s subcutaneous formulation, likely to gain US approval in September, ranks among the most valuable pipeline assets by net present value - a case study in strategic lifecycle management.
But this year’s World Preview is not just about growth. It’s about disruption—and the capital reallocation it may trigger.
2025’s World Preview is not all business-as-usual.
Policy volatility, including potential US drug pricing reforms and FDA leadership changes, is compounding uncertainty. Cuts to NIH funding and a slowdown in biopharma M&A - a critical exit route for venture-backed biotech - are reshaping the risk-reward calculus. The biotech sector, still recovering from a prolonged downcycle, remains fragile.
Meanwhile, China’s emergence as a source of first-in-class innovation is altering global deal flow. Chinese-origin assets are expected to represent nearly 40% of licensing deals this year, up from under 3% five years ago. This shift is not just geographic, it’s strategic. Western pharma must improve R&D efficiency or risk losing capital and competitive edge to faster, leaner players.
AI may offer a partial solution, but its impact on drug development timelines, success rates, and capital efficiency is still unfolding.
For investors, the implications are clear: demand is strong, but capital must be selective. Biologics will account for nearly two-thirds of Rx value by 2030, intensifying pricing pressure and regulatory scrutiny. The sector’s innovation engine is running but the road ahead is uneven.
In volatile markets, forecasting becomes both harder and more essential. This year’s World Preview quantifies the trends, flags the risks, and highlights where value may be created - or lost.
In this year’s World Preview, we discuss the data and insights shaping the next decade of life sciences investment.
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