Deal-making alone won’t be sufficient to bridge the gap
The list of brands facing patent expiry of loss of exclusivity in the next six years is extensive. Evaluate’s database contains more than 400 such drugs, although their relative impact is widely variable. Focusing on the main contributors to the industry-wide patent cliff, 68 separate products will be blockbusters at the time of expiry. Exactly half of these will generate more than $2bn in annual sales, while the ten biggest expiries share $126bn in at-risk revenues. These are outlined in the table below.
The reality is that deal-making alone isn’t sufficient to bridge such a large gap.
Judging by the prices paid for recent typical bolt-on acquisitions such as Verona, Blueprint and IntraCellular, a hypothetical acquisition cost to bridge a revenue gap of $94bn would be an eyewatering $600bn. While certain reports suggest that this amount of dry powder is available, recent history suggests that would be highly unusual. And you could rightly argue that there just simply aren’t enough buyout targets to fill such a hole, unless you enter the realms of major consolidation and pharma-to-pharma megamergers.
The reality is that deal-making alone isn’t sufficient to bridge such a large gap. And the consequence is that pharma companies must also seek to upgrade the value of their current growth drivers through more aggressive launches and front-loading lifecycle management. The next case study is a prime example of this. Let’s look at Dupixent and its repeated successes provide its developers Sanofi and Regeneron with considerable strategic freedom.
Evaluate’s consensus forecasts, an aggregation of estimates from multiple leading analysts, are typically reliable indicators of market performance. Yet Dupixent has repeatedly surpassed these projections. Figure 7 indicates that one year prior to launch, consensus estimates projected third-year sales of $2.4bn. However, by its third full year on the market following its 2017 launch, Dupixent achieved actual sales of just over $4bn – an overperformance from pre-launch estimates by 71%.
As the next chart shows, this momentum has carried forwards. Analysts routinely underestimated Dupixent’s revenues by around half, necessitating constant upgrades as Sanofi and Regeneron delivered new indications and impressive sales data. Back in 2020, consensus pointed towards 2024 revenues of $6.3bn, while the actual number later came in as $14.1bn. Evaluate’s latest consensus gives 2030 revenues of $25.8bn, by which time Dupixent will rival Skyrizi as the highest-selling non-GLP-1 drug. Note that the consensus period has shifted over time, generally encompassing around six years of forward-looking data.
Figure 7. Dupixent 2020 historic sales forecasts
Source: Evaluate Pharma
Figure 8. Evolution of Dupixent’s consensus forecast by model date
One key factor in the Dupixent success story is the breadth of indications for which the drug is approved. Like other high-performing pipeline-in-a-products, its wide applicability has played a major role in driving growth. From the outset, Sanofi and Regeneron adopted a forward-looking clinical strategy, investing early in lifecycle management to support a strong launch and sustained momentum.
Throughout Dupixent’s lifecycle, Sanofi and Regeneron have supported the drug with an impressive body of clinical evidence. At the time of launch, Dupixent had 32 clinical trials underway or complete. By the end of 2024, this had risen to 126, meaning that 94 new clinical trials were launched after initial FDA approval. This ongoing reinvestment has fueled a steady stream of approvals across new indications, broadening market reach while exclusivity protections remain in place. Notably, the companies began with the largest indication, atopic dermatitis, which continues to be Dupixent’s leading revenue driver.
Planning for a multi-indication blockbuster from the beginning is challenging, but Dupixent’s development demonstrates how strategic foresight, firm commitment, and disciplined execution can lead to long-term commercial success.
