Growth Drivers
Using our weighted analysis, we analyzed mechanisms of action (MoAs) and identified those with the largest deal activity – defined as the number of deals and deal values, along with metrics such as worldwide peak sales and New Present Value (NPV).
Mechanism of Action
Rankings
2015-2018
2019-2021
2022-2025
Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist
153
473
1
Progesterone receptor agonist
35
211
2
Hemoglobin regulator
411
299
3
Calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) antagonist
83
68
4
Phosphodiesterase 3 (PDE3) inhibitor; Phosphodiesterase 4 (PDE4) inhibitor
1954
356
5
Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-like ligand 1A (TL1A) Inhibitor
1629
6
Insulin-like growth factor receptor 1 (IGF-1R) antibody
619
262
7
Solute carrier family 39 zinc transporter member 6 (ZIP6/LIV-1) antibody; Tubulin polymerization inhibitor
24
8
Epidermal growth factor receptor ErbB-2 (HER2) inhibitor; Tubulin polymerizations inhibitor
463
45
Protein degrader
133
304
10
Figure 6: Top 10 Mechanisms by deal activity
The unprecedented growth in the GLP-1 space continues. GLP-1 receptor agonists rank at the top of our analysis of deal activity. This is driven by deals as early as 2015 such as Eli Lilly’s partnership with Hanmi Pharmaceuticals. These mechanisms are foundational in metabolic diseases, with deal activity reflecting their continued validation and high expectations from the market as more indications open up.Emerging mechanisms like TL1A inhibitor, protein inhibitors and PDE3/PDE4 inhibitors also feature. TL1A inhibitors, in particular, have moved from obscurity to prominence, reflecting growing interest in novel approaches to gastro-intestinal diseases.
Overall, the list shows a shift away from symptomatic to pathway reprogramming MoAs.
These MoAs are driving growth but what of the emerging mechanisms that will fuel dealmaking in the longer term? In the table below, we look at the newer mechanisms of note.
1956
1631
143
9
Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21) stimulant
522
829
20
Regulatory T-cell (Treg) therapy
607
207
38
Gastric inhibitory polypeptide (GIP) receptor agonist; Glucagon receptor (GCGR) agonist; Glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist
58
B7-H3 inhibitor; Topoisomerase I inhibitor
25
Figure 7: Key emerging mechanisms by deal activity
The most dramatic emergence here is TL1A inhibitors, jumping from rank 1956 to rank five, representing one of the fastest ascents in our dataset. This reflects strong clinical validation in inflammatory bowel disease with multiple Phase 3 programs underway.
ADCs have been a hot area for the past few years, and B7-H3/Topoisomerase I ADCs represent their newest incarnation as a “next big thing”. This reflects their technology maturation into novel solid tumor targets beyond traditional HER2 applications.
Regulatory T-cell (Treg) therapy represent the expansion of cell therapies into immune tolerance and autoimmune diseases with potential to revolutionize treatment paradigms. Following the success of GLP-1s, triple incretin agonists offer enhanced metabolic coverage, building on tirzepatide's superiority demonstration.
Technologies
BiTE
22
16
RNA interference (RNAi)
15
14
Circular RNA (circRNA)
118
26
Cardiac cell therapy
100
94
44
Aptamer
99
81
23
saRNA (small activating RNAs)
84
Figure 8: Top emerging technologies
Interest in BiTE (Bispecific T-Cell Engagers) demonstrates sustained market confidence in off-the-shelf immunotherapy platforms with proven clinical efficacy following Blincyto approval in June 2024. The technology is now expanding from hematologic malignancies into solid tumor applications with next-generation half-life extended formats.Circular RNA (circRNA) shows the most dramatic emergence, representing the fastest ascent in the dataset, driven by post-mRNA vaccine validation demonstrating that circular structure provides superior stability, reduced immunogenicity, and sustained protein expression compared to linear mRNA with first clinical approvals anticipated 2027-2029.The inclusion of Aptamers in this dataset reflects renewed interest in oligonucleotide-based targeting molecules that offer chemical synthesis advantages over antibodies, superior tissue penetration due to smaller size, and dual therapeutic/diagnostic applications with improved pharmacokinetic modifications addressing earlier renal clearance limitations.
The mechanisms and technologies landscape in biopharma is vast and dynamic, with deal data providing a unique lens into industry priorities. As buy-side players address patent cliffs and sell-side licensing becomes a key funding source, the focus is shifting toward modalities and technologies with transformative impact.Evaluate’s analysis highlights mechanisms and technologies rising in prominence and deals shaping the industry’s future. We expect continued innovation, with new modalities and technologies driving future dealmaking. Monitoring emerging mechanisms and technologies, and tracking unpartnered assets will be critical for identifying future opportunities. If you’ve like to learn how we can support your portfolio planning and deal strategy, please get in touch.
Looking for more detail? Read on for deep dives on TPDs, TL1A inhibitors, microRNA and circRNA.